Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Iowa

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Iowa in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Iowa in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 70.7% for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.475) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.231).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.8444 10.99%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4032 -1.24%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1557 -2.41%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.1183 -0.92%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.1792 -10.74%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1050 0.86%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0156 -0.36%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.1366 1.18%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0044 -0.06%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0184 0.09%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0193 -0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4962 -6.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2302 -2.81%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0002 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0141 -0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1238 2.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0023 -0.03%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.2630 5.16%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0509 0.64%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0762 -1.38%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0468 1.36%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0006 0.00%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.0048 -0.05%
Low Income 0.0081 0.0660 0.05%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0026 -0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0011 0.02%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0006 -0.01%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6512 12.30%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0124 -0.02%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0014 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0213 0.13%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0001 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0043 -0.01%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0034 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9983 2.20%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 44.0000 -0.81%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0150 3.19%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0510 4.39%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1451 2.75%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0143 -7.60%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0707 -34.42%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.0915 34.39%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2419 19.92%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.0939 -8.37%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0275 12.45%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0428 9.47%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0240 1.63%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,605 for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 36160) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-30554).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.8580 -$2,438
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.4200 -$362
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1634 -$514
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.1208 -$639
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.1455 -$882
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1060 $25
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0151 -$67
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.1404 -$326
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0039 -$25
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0157 -$42
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0180 $126
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5000 $181
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2299 $190
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0003 -$0
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0158 $89
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1291 $523
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0022 $19
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3234 $312
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0528 $191
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0493 -$49
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0421 -$57
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0008 -$4
Single Parent 145.7630 0.0055 $1
Low Income -332.4067 0.0642 -$21
Homeless -446.4262 0.0025 -$1
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0011 $2
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0006 -$1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7060 $570
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 6554.4650 $2,394
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0001 $0
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0147 $10
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0013 -$3
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0248 $23
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0001 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0030 -$18
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0039 $3
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9982 -$205
Median Days in Program 3.2489 46.0000 $149
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0150 $361
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0510 $1,649
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1451 $5,694
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0143 -$687
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0707 $288
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.0915 $8,854
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2419 $13,587
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.0939 $5,412
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0275 $296
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0428 $1,696
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0240 -$146

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.9% for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.647) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.968).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.8653 -31.27%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5347 27.90%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1141 -0.80%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0412 -4.11%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0399 11.65%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1038 -15.00%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0144 3.08%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.1808 -10.25%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0179 1.52%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0323 6.38%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.3759 -4.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2151 -3.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0082 0.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0275 -2.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1031 -2.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0048 0.88%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.2186 7.97%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.6110 -18.60%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0907 -2.37%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0309 0.78%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0089 0.79%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.0742 1.58%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0172 1.34%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6722 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0034 0.02%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0103 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.3333 -4.32%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0076 0.37%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0103 -0.29%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.9945 7.28%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 146.0000 5.18%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 45.0000 -1.10%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.4302 -0.37%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0150 15.02%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0510 45.53%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1451 175.95%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0143 -62.50%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0707 224.35%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.0915 69.33%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2419 240.20%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.0939 24.23%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0275 90.40%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0428 -0.61%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0240 -32.47%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 88.4% for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.798) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.683).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4312 2.57%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.5754 1.09%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2483 -0.42%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.0895 0.95%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0374 -0.71%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1589 1.88%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0093 -0.27%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0574 -0.21%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0080 -0.08%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0067 -0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4539 -1.18%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1295 -2.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0227 -0.41%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0774 -0.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.0921 -1.33%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0013 -0.02%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1856 1.97%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0387 -0.10%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0374 -0.20%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0547 0.03%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0240 -0.61%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0401 0.18%
Low Income -0.0518 0.0828 -0.43%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0053 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0013 -0.03%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.1923 2.17%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.6142 1.28%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0961 0.71%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.5688 2.82%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0107 -0.13%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0027 0.22%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0013 -0.07%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.8772 -4.49%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 451.0000 0.36%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0150 -3.03%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0510 -2.38%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1451 -24.76%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0143 -14.12%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0707 -44.37%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.0915 -32.97%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2419 -48.25%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.0939 -26.77%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0275 8.37%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0428 5.26%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0240 0.99%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $10,538 for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 37070) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-26532).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4264 -$811
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.5886 $657
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2477 -$31
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0796 -$169
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0330 -$82
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1622 -$139
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0060 -$28
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0571 -$88
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0090 -$32
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0075 -$28
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4595 -$643
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1306 -$249
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0225 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0811 $124
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.0961 $112
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0015 $3
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.2057 $350
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0390 $148
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0360 $10
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0556 $80
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0225 -$67
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0375 -$29
Low Income -538.7097 0.0796 -$43
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0045 $36
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0015 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.2042 $4
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9433.6250 $865
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0000 $0
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.6006 $41
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0916 -$228
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.5796 $102
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0105 $5
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0030 -$6
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0015 -$6
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.8679 -$350
Median Days in Program 2.2222 449.0000 $998
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0150 -$409
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0510 $1,869
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1451 $6,848
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0143 -$3,711
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0707 $6,075
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.0915 $8,696
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2419 $12,380
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.0939 $4,128
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0275 -$125
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0428 $952
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0240 -$139

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 28.1% for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.579) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.299).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.6004 -9.06%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.6268 -4.11%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2049 4.95%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0872 3.99%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0365 3.34%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1014 -6.74%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0101 -0.54%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0771 -2.54%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0041 1.07%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0041 0.02%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4077 -7.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1278 -3.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0385 -1.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0933 2.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.0710 -0.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0081 -0.35%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0933 -0.20%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0730 -1.93%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0467 -6.76%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0365 -3.37%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0284 1.28%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0304 1.12%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.5335 1.53%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0000 0.00%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0872 3.11%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.4929 -3.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0061 -0.27%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0142 -5.50%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9675 -9.32%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 532.0000 -17.10%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 530.0000 -14.50%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0588 0.95%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0150 -12.12%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0510 22.69%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1451 143.03%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0143 -83.71%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0707 86.26%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.0915 146.93%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2419 173.30%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.0939 14.19%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0275 179.64%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0428 -12.18%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0240 -25.93%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 72.3% for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.032) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.755).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5179 3.08%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0501 0.61%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2959 -4.25%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.2959 -6.08%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1647 0.17%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.1265 -0.79%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0215 0.43%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.1885 -0.78%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0143 -0.48%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0406 0.61%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.3819 2.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0334 -1.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0024 0.12%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2625 7.21%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.3174 1.13%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.2291 -1.07%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0286 -0.40%
Low Income 0.0375 0.7900 2.96%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0334 -0.67%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1527 0.97%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0143 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2506 -1.79%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5465 1.91%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0024 -0.02%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0048 -0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.6921 3.06%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0048 0.04%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0191 -0.07%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0000 0.00%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.2387 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.9212 1.37%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 339.5000 -1.36%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0150 -10.18%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0510 -9.59%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1451 -19.74%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0143 -10.41%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0707 -15.11%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.0915 -23.39%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2419 0.60%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.0939 -3.70%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0275 -29.69%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0428 14.11%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0240 -3.56%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,724 for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 15479) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11755).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5488 -$1,030.41
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0505 -$4.66
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2761 -$361.42
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3165 -$337.54
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1650 $107.16
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1414 $270.59
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0236 $15.31
Race: Black -886.3703 0.1785 -$158.17
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0000 $0.00
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0135 -$2.48
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0337 $31.42
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.3872 $535.87
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0370 -$30.67
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0034 $22.47
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3165 $194.26
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.3165 $172.87
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.2020 -$100.04
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0337 $82.70
Low Income -305.7985 0.8182 -$250.20
Homeless 983.9044 0.0236 $23.19
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1448 -$185.99
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0168 $17.00
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2862 $244.56
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.5522 -$156.53
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0034 -$2.12
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0034 -$1.56
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.7071 $113.96
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0000 $0.00
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0000 $0.00
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0236 -$12.72
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2424 -$1.05
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.9091 -$25.34
Median Days in Program 0.5942 343.0000 $203.81
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0150 -$47.57
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0510 $560.69
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1451 $3,128.98
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0143 -$790.92
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0707 $3,168.69
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.0915 $1,301.20
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2419 $4,928.54
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.0939 $665.25
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0275 $1,568.41
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0428 $1,863.50
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0240 -$241.72

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 44.2% for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.379) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-2.937).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5843 -16.12%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0600 -4.87%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2887 -26.05%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3256 -22.79%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1848 -30.31%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.1132 -0.19%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0139 -0.02%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.1755 0.07%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0139 -0.22%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0323 6.38%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.2864 -7.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0277 2.91%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.3025 0.67%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.5035 9.95%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0162 0.03%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.8545 -6.09%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0046 0.26%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0023 -0.20%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.9423 -4.74%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 329.0000 -10.74%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.1039 -3.58%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0150 11.44%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0510 48.83%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1451 84.63%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0143 -61.05%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0707 -100.73%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.0915 132.48%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2419 170.88%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.0939 59.12%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0275 139.82%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0428 -31.39%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0240 -2.79%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 73.7% for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.372) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.635).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4521 3.62%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4718 5.12%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1923 -1.65%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0917 -0.06%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0849 -0.53%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1173 2.73%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0151 -0.36%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1279 -2.06%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0048 0.47%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0178 -0.54%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0167 0.41%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4572 -0.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.3055 1.18%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0004 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0609 2.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0871 -5.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0116 -0.61%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.2812 2.43%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0447 -0.40%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0490 -1.74%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0651 1.41%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0007 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0027 0.06%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1715 1.59%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0102 -0.07%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0011 0.02%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0022 -0.05%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6621 21.01%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.0088 -0.03%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0012 -0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0135 -0.14%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0001 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0210 2.28%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0137 -0.78%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 37.0000 -1.02%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0150 2.53%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0510 7.86%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1451 14.70%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0143 -0.66%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0707 20.97%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.0915 8.63%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2419 31.04%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.0939 5.55%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0275 10.73%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0428 7.27%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0240 0.82%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,290 for Iowa for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40357) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34067).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4460 -$1,237
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4861 $742
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1963 $44
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0903 $156
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0666 $266
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1208 $182
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0151 -$19
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.1312 -$384
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0049 -$12
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0154 -$86
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0154 $165
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4553 -$803
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.3062 -$667
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0005 -$1
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0638 $134
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0911 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0117 -$59
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.3155 $144
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0457 -$53
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0342 -$175
Veteran -913.8967 0.0619 -$57
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0008 $1
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0030 $2
Low Income 634.4633 0.1519 $96
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0092 -$32
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0011 $2
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0021 -$23
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.7266 -$159
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 6919.1500 $1,807
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0000 $0
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.0102 $5
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0013 $0
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0148 -$9
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0002 -$0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0143 $155
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0117 $19
Median Days in Program 0.8717 37.0000 $32
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0150 $556
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0510 $2,181
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1451 $6,923
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0143 $161
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0707 $4,428
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.0915 $6,212
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2419 $12,457
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.0939 $4,037
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0275 $1,145
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0428 $2,196
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0240 -$122

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x